🔗 Share this article

Things were simpler then. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a Test.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Three years further on, same story. Five more years went by and, yes, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, game management, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that some may have held for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

In an era when most props are replaced early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of limited game time.

Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Against Ireland, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge secured victory.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches recently, they've accumulated scores in the first half and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

What Scotland Needs

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. A yellow card? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. Vocal support. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.